Development and integration of an advanced operational hydrological system for flood early warning in the basin network of the Basque Water Agency
ANNUAL REPORT 2025
Improvement of real-time flood forecasting capability in the Basque Country (SIMCEUS)
SIMCEUS is a project funded by the Basque Water Agency (URA) in the framework of the European Union’s Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (NextGenerationEU), dedicated to the improvement of tools for real-time prediction and management of river floods in the Basque Country.
1. CHALLENGE
The operational hydrological warning system of the Basque Water Agency (URA) relies on the Deltares FEWS platform, which integrates real-time data and prediction models to manage flood emergency situations in the Basque Country. A new hydrological model has been incorporated into the core of the system – the LEMS model – which has required a complete recalibration with recent data, a more robust integration with FEWS and new decision support tools for the more complex reservoir systems in the network. The absence of these capabilities limited the accuracy and anticipation of warnings, especially in extreme events.
2. SOLUTION
IHCantabria developed an integrated solution along three lines. First, it recalibrated the LEMS model using the 2014-2024 hydrometeorological database of the entire URA basin network, and implemented a statistical error correction module based on autoregressive (AR) models to reduce residual deviations at short forecast horizons. Second, developed a LEMS-FEWS adapter with netCDF interfaces fully compatible with Deltares, which allows operational integration of the model into the URA prediction environment. Third, it built three specific operational applications for the Zadorra, Arratia and Añarbe-Urumea systems, which combine hydrological forecasting, reservoir management rules and result visualization in a real-time decision support environment.
3. RESULTS
The project has delivered a final validated LEMS parameterization for the entire URA basin network, the LEMS-FEWS v03 adapter ready for operational deployment and three reservoir system management applications with full technical documentation. As an additional strategic deliverable, IHCantabria prepared the report “Water management in the AI era. Situation and opportunities of the Basque Water Agency. Horizon 2026-2030”, which provides URA with a roadmap for the digital transformation of its hydrological capabilities with a 2030 horizon under the SIMCEUS concept.
